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Good betting value?


Is it just me, or have the bookies got some odds well out of line with the facts?

Simply, according to oddschecker.com some bookies are offering 1000/1 if Chelsea get relegated this season.

Now I can understand :-

Sunderland 1/4
Aston Villa 8/11
Newcastle 1/1
West Bromwich 11/4

-: but currently Chelsea are 16th out of 20 in the league table and you can currently get 1000/1 !

To me that makes no sense. I think it is well out of line with the facts. Bournemouth are currently above Chelsea in the table and their odds are only 5/2 at Betfair (Sportsbook). So why are Chelsea 1000/1?

Last edited by jline, 6/Oct/2015, 7:47 am


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John
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Re: Good betting value?


Because they won't go down.

A run of form like Chelsea are having hasn't happened to them in 10-15 years? and the bookies reckon, as do the public by the look of those odds, that its very unlikely to continue.
Bookies don't make up the odds past a starting price, they change according to what the market is like, the more money is bet on them the shorter the price gets.

Having said that evens on Newcastle is a very generous price.
5/Oct/2015, 8:56 am Link to this post Send Email to Psycho Mouse   Send PM to Psycho Mouse
 
jline Profile
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Re: Good betting value?


What I look for is value, that is value in the odds being offered.

It just strikes me that 1000/1 is incredibly generous, given their current 16th place in the table.

But as you say it does depend upon the amounts being bet. I see that Betfair (Sportsbook) have now reduced their odds on Chelsea being relegated from 1000/1 to a mere 500/1, possibly as a result in my massive £2.50 bet this morning. Yes I stand to win £2500 !

But there is currently another bookie still offering 1000/1, as detailed on oddschecker.com . Most bookies now offering 500/1.

<<Because they won't go down.>>

I agree it is highly unlikely, but it is impossible to rule anything out. Nothing is impossible.

<<Having said that evens on Newcastle is a very generous price.>>

So even you are seeing value in the odds. But again nothing is guaranteed.



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John
5/Oct/2015, 7:09 pm Link to this post Send Email to jline   Send PM to jline Blog
 
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Re: Good betting value?


Oh I see value in odds but 1000/1 is nowhere near long enough for me to be tempted on Chelsea going down. You might as well go to the bookies and hand them £5.

Fake play for taking a punt though, and as you say, you never know. emoticon
5/Oct/2015, 8:18 pm Link to this post Send Email to Psycho Mouse   Send PM to Psycho Mouse
 
jline Profile
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Re: Good betting value?


The website footballwebpages.co.uk do not only the current League table but also a Predicted Final Table.

Of course they could easily be very wrong, but I think that :-

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/premierleague/league/predicted

-: makes very interesting reading.

Yes they forecast I shall lose my bet, but they think Chelsea will finish in the bottom half. Even that is incredible.

I bet you now cannot resist looking up the Predicted League Table for National North!

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John
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Re: Good betting value?


Very unlikely that Chelsea will get relegated with the amount of international players and experience that they have as well the resources they have available should they need to sign new players in January.

Even at those odds, I would say that it is unlikely that they will get relegated, but may be worth a punt and just have seperate bets over the next few games in order to cover the initial outlay.

Thankfully I do not bet on football anymore emoticon

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7/Oct/2015, 9:42 am Link to this post Send Email to Statto   Send PM to Statto
 
jline Profile
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Re: Good betting value?


I agree it is very unlikely that Chelsea will get relegated.

All I would add is, if they lose their next league match at home to Aston Villa on the 17th, then expect those odds to shorten noticeably.

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John
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Re: Good betting value?


With Tim Nice-But-Dim in theoretic charge at villa, and with his array of tactics like playing so badly in the first half they are booed off and the opposition are lulled into a false sense of security we can be sure of one thing....Chelsea will win. Last year they did 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0, so now they are off form I suspect a simple 2-0. Put your money on it (but not mine).
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Re: Good betting value?


Totally accept that little chance of Villa winning. Current odds are :-

Chelsea win 4/11
Draw 9/2
Villa win 11/1

But it is not unknown for teams that are 11/1 or greater to end up winning. It happens, but not that often.

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John
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Re: Good betting value?


Yes this is true. I now worry that I may have poisoned Chelsea's chances, but I haven't gone the whole hog and put money on the Blue Pensioners.
8/Oct/2015, 9:15 pm Link to this post Send Email to RoJ   Send PM to RoJ
 


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